2026 Week 7 · Oct 15, 2026, 12:00 AM · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston
Predicted scoreToss-up
Western Kentucky
27.0
Sam Houston
24.9
Sam Houston win probability: 45%
Margin (Sam Houston − Western Kentucky): -2.1 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 51.9 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Western Kentucky 16 – Sam Houston 3 (margin error 10.9, total error 32.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:36 PM | -10.0 | 51.3 | 26% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:32 PM | -10.0 | 51.3 | 26% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:40 PM | -10.0 | 51.3 | 26% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:17 AM | -10.0 | 51.3 | 26% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:37 PM | -10.1 | 51.3 | 26% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:55 PM | -9.8 | 51.1 | 27% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:50 PM | -4.6 | 54.1 | 39% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:53 PM | -4.3 | 56.1 | 40% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:53 PM | -4.2 | 56.1 | 40% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:52 AM | -3.9 | 56.0 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:28 PM | -3.9 | 56.0 | 41% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:23 PM | -2.5 | 53.2 | 43% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:15 PM | -1.4 | 52.7 | 47% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:49 PM | -2.1 | 51.9 | 45% |