2026 Week 7 · Oct 14, 2026, 12:00 AM · AmFirst Stadium
Florida International @ Jacksonville State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Florida International
24.6
Jacksonville State
23.9
Jacksonville State win probability: 48%
Margin (Jacksonville State − Florida International): -0.7 (80% range -21 to 19)
Total: 48.6 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Florida International 24 – Jacksonville State 27 (margin error 3.7, total error 2.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:32 PM | 4.5 | 50.8 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:31 PM | 4.5 | 50.8 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:39 PM | 4.5 | 50.8 | 62% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:15 AM | 4.5 | 50.8 | 62% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:37 PM | 4.4 | 50.8 | 61% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:53 PM | 3.7 | 50.8 | 59% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:49 PM | 2.1 | 50.4 | 55% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:52 PM | 0.3 | 50.4 | 51% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:54 PM | 0.3 | 50.4 | 51% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:50 AM | 0.6 | 50.3 | 51% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:27 PM | 0.6 | 50.3 | 51% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:22 PM | 0.1 | 48.2 | 50% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:20 PM | 0.6 | 49.9 | 52% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:47 PM | -0.7 | 48.6 | 48% |