2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 11:30 PM · Huskie Stadium
Air Force @ Northern Illinois
Predicted scoreLean
Air Force
28.2
Northern Illinois
22.2
Northern Illinois win probability: 35%
Margin (Northern Illinois − Air Force): -6.0 (80% range -25 to 14)
Total: 50.4 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Air Force 28 – Northern Illinois 7 (margin error 15.0, total error 15.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.91% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.72% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:20 PM | -1.5 | 54.7 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:30 PM | -1.5 | 54.7 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:37 PM | -1.5 | 54.7 | 47% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:30 AM | -1.5 | 54.7 | 46% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:32 PM | -1.4 | 54.7 | 47% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:50 PM | -1.6 | 54.1 | 46% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:43 PM | -4.0 | 51.6 | 40% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:28 PM | -6.9 | 52.7 | 33% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:25 PM | -6.8 | 52.8 | 33% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:19 AM | -6.0 | 52.8 | 35% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:20 PM | -6.0 | 52.8 | 35% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:55 PM | -5.9 | 52.6 | 35% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:13 PM | -6.0 | 50.4 | 35% |