2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 11:30 PM · Huskie Stadium
Air Force @ Northern Illinois
Predicted scoreToss-up
Air Force
28.1
Northern Illinois
26.6
Northern Illinois win probability: 47%
Margin (Northern Illinois − Air Force): -1.5 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 54.7 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:20 PM | -1.5 | 54.7 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:30 PM | -1.5 | 54.7 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:37 PM | -1.5 | 54.7 | 47% |