2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 11:00 PM · Allegiant Stadium
North Dakota State @ UNLV
Predicted scoreToss-up
North Dakota State
21.6
UNLV
24.2
UNLV win probability: 57%
Margin (UNLV − North Dakota State): 2.7 (80% range -17 to 21)
Total: 45.8 (80% range 24 to 69)
Actual: North Dakota State 7 – UNLV 13 (margin error 3.3, total error 25.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:36 PM | 4.9 | 59.3 | 61% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:29 AM | 4.9 | 59.3 | 61% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:32 PM | 4.9 | 59.2 | 61% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:49 PM | 4.8 | 59.8 | 60% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:43 PM | -7.8 | 43.5 | 30% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:28 PM | -2.5 | 46.4 | 43% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:26 PM | -2.5 | 46.4 | 43% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:20 AM | -2.2 | 46.3 | 44% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:20 PM | -2.2 | 46.3 | 44% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:56 PM | 5.5 | 46.0 | 64% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:10 PM | 2.7 | 45.8 | 57% |