2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 11:00 PM · Allegiant Stadium

North Dakota State @ UNLV

Predicted scoreLean

North Dakota State

27.2

UNLV

32.1

UNLV win probability: 61%

Margin (UNLV − North Dakota State): 4.9 (80% range -18 to 28)

Total: 59.3 (80% range 37 to 82)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.