2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 7:30 PM · Notre Dame Stadium
Stanford @ Notre Dame
Predicted scoreConfident
Stanford
8.0
Notre Dame
41.1
Notre Dame win probability: 99%
Margin (Notre Dame − Stanford): 33.1 (80% range 14 to 53)
Total: 49.1 (80% range 28 to 72)
Actual: Stanford 7 – Notre Dame 58 (margin error 17.9, total error 15.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38 | 1.33% |
| 0 | 35 | 1.23% |
| 0 | 45 | 1.23% |
| 7 | 38 | 1.19% |
| 0 | 31 | 1.19% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:21 PM | 27.4 | 50.2 | 97% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:29 PM | 27.4 | 50.1 | 97% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:34 PM | 27.5 | 50.1 | 97% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:27 AM | 27.5 | 50.1 | 97% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:31 PM | 27.5 | 50.1 | 97% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:46 PM | 27.2 | 49.7 | 96% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:39 PM | 29.4 | 53.2 | 97% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:25 PM | 30.4 | 52.5 | 98% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:57 PM | 30.4 | 52.6 | 98% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:41 AM | 30.4 | 52.7 | 98% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:59 PM | 30.4 | 52.6 | 98% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:11 PM | 31.0 | 48.2 | 98% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:56 PM | 33.1 | 49.1 | 99% |