2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Peden Stadium
Central Michigan @ Ohio
Predicted scoreToss-up
Central Michigan
24.6
Ohio
27.2
Ohio win probability: 57%
Margin (Ohio − Central Michigan): 2.6 (80% range -17 to 23)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Central Michigan 14 – Ohio 31 (margin error 14.4, total error 6.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:21 PM | 9.8 | 52.0 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:29 PM | 9.8 | 52.0 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:09 PM | 9.8 | 52.0 | 73% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:43 AM | 9.8 | 52.0 | 73% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:28 PM | 9.8 | 52.0 | 73% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:30 PM | 9.3 | 51.6 | 72% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:22 PM | 8.6 | 55.0 | 70% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:37 PM | 8.2 | 54.8 | 70% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:05 PM | 8.3 | 54.8 | 70% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:40 AM | 8.7 | 54.7 | 71% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:18 PM | 8.7 | 54.7 | 71% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:01 PM | 5.6 | 52.9 | 64% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:07 PM | 2.6 | 51.8 | 57% |