2026 Week 6 · Oct 9, 2026, 11:00 PM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Florida State @ Louisville
Predicted scoreLean
Florida State
24.4
Louisville
29.1
Louisville win probability: 62%
Margin (Louisville − Florida State): 4.7 (80% range -15 to 25)
Total: 53.4 (80% range 31 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:18 PM | 4.7 | 53.4 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:19 PM | 4.7 | 53.4 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:01 PM | 4.7 | 53.4 | 62% |