2026 Week 6 · Oct 9, 2026, 11:00 PM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Florida State @ Louisville
Predicted scoreToss-up
Florida State
29.3
Louisville
30.8
Louisville win probability: 53%
Margin (Louisville − Florida State): 1.5 (80% range -20 to 22)
Total: 60.1 (80% range 36 to 86)
Actual: Florida State 20 – Louisville 44 (margin error 22.5, total error 3.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 28 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.55% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:18 PM | 4.7 | 53.4 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:19 PM | 4.7 | 53.4 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:01 PM | 4.7 | 53.4 | 62% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:47 AM | 4.7 | 53.4 | 62% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:35 PM | 4.7 | 53.4 | 62% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:14 PM | 4.4 | 53.6 | 61% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:07 PM | 9.8 | 55.7 | 73% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:33 PM | 9.5 | 56.1 | 72% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:20 PM | 9.5 | 56.2 | 72% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:25 AM | 9.5 | 56.2 | 72% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:03 PM | 9.5 | 56.2 | 72% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:49 PM | 6.0 | 60.2 | 64% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:01 PM | 1.5 | 60.1 | 53% |