2026 Week 6 · Oct 8, 2026, 11:00 PM · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Missouri State @ Western Kentucky
Predicted scoreToss-up
Missouri State
23.6
Western Kentucky
24.8
Western Kentucky win probability: 53%
Margin (Western Kentucky − Missouri State): 1.2 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 48.4 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Missouri State 13 – Western Kentucky 34 (margin error 19.8, total error 1.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.75% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:26 PM | 4.0 | 51.0 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:18 PM | 4.0 | 51.0 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:58 PM | 4.0 | 51.0 | 60% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:49 AM | 4.0 | 51.0 | 60% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:34 PM | 4.0 | 51.0 | 60% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:41 PM | 4.1 | 50.2 | 60% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:05 PM | 5.3 | 49.3 | 63% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:31 PM | 3.0 | 49.9 | 58% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:22 PM | 3.0 | 49.9 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:23 AM | 3.2 | 49.9 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:01 PM | 3.2 | 49.9 | 58% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:48 PM | 4.2 | 48.8 | 61% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:59 PM | 1.2 | 48.4 | 53% |