2026 Week 6 · Oct 7, 2026, 11:30 PM · Pitbull Stadium
New Mexico State @ Florida International
Predicted scoreToss-up
New Mexico State
22.8
Florida International
26.2
Florida International win probability: 59%
Margin (Florida International − New Mexico State): 3.4 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 49.0 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: New Mexico State 3 – Florida International 22 (margin error 15.6, total error 24.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:16 PM | 7.8 | 50.1 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:18 PM | 7.8 | 50.0 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:58 PM | 7.8 | 50.0 | 69% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:51 AM | 7.8 | 50.0 | 69% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:33 PM | 7.8 | 50.0 | 69% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:10 PM | 7.6 | 50.1 | 69% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:45 PM | 6.8 | 50.7 | 66% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:30 PM | 5.9 | 51.5 | 65% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:23 PM | 5.1 | 51.6 | 63% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:23 AM | 5.8 | 51.6 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:01 PM | 5.8 | 51.6 | 64% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:47 PM | 5.9 | 49.6 | 64% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:59 PM | 3.4 | 49.0 | 59% |