2026 Week 6 · Oct 7, 2026, 11:30 PM · Pitbull Stadium
New Mexico State @ Florida International
Predicted scoreLean
New Mexico State
21.1
Florida International
28.9
Florida International win probability: 69%
Margin (Florida International − New Mexico State): 7.8 (80% range -12 to 28)
Total: 50.0 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:16 PM | 7.8 | 50.1 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:18 PM | 7.8 | 50.0 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:58 PM | 7.8 | 50.0 | 69% |