Predicted scoreLean
UCF
25.2
Houston
29.9
Houston win probability: 61%
Margin (Houston − UCF): 4.7 (80% range -16 to 25)
Total: 55.1 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: UCF 17 – Houston 27 (margin error 5.3, total error 11.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:03 PM | 5.2 | 52.4 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:12 PM | 5.2 | 52.4 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:30 PM | 5.2 | 52.3 | 63% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:31 AM | 5.2 | 52.4 | 63% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:12 PM | 5.2 | 52.3 | 63% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:41 PM | 6.4 | 51.7 | 66% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:38 PM | 4.1 | 53.1 | 60% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:06 PM | 4.4 | 50.9 | 61% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:46 PM | 4.4 | 50.9 | 61% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:59 AM | 4.7 | 50.9 | 62% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:52 PM | 4.7 | 50.9 | 62% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:18 PM | 4.7 | 55.1 | 61% |