Predicted scoreLean
UCF
23.6
Houston
28.8
Houston win probability: 63%
Margin (Houston − UCF): 5.2 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 52.3 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.82% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:03 PM | 5.2 | 52.4 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:12 PM | 5.2 | 52.4 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:30 PM | 5.2 | 52.3 | 63% |