2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Kenan Stadium
Notre Dame @ North Carolina
Predicted scoreConfident
Notre Dame
33.9
North Carolina
15.3
North Carolina win probability: 11%
Margin (North Carolina − Notre Dame): -18.6 (80% range -38 to 0)
Total: 49.2 (80% range 28 to 72)
Actual: Notre Dame 37 – North Carolina 26 (margin error 7.6, total error 13.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 10 | 0.91% |
| 31 | 7 | 0.82% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.74% |
| 38 | 10 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:08 PM | -18.3 | 53.2 | 12% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:10 PM | -18.3 | 53.2 | 12% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:25 PM | -18.3 | 53.3 | 12% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:57 AM | -18.3 | 53.2 | 12% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:05 PM | -18.3 | 53.2 | 12% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:45 PM | -18.0 | 52.8 | 13% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:41 PM | -18.2 | 51.5 | 12% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:58 PM | -18.6 | 50.4 | 11% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:35 PM | -18.6 | 50.5 | 11% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:58 AM | -17.7 | 50.4 | 13% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:31 PM | -17.7 | 50.4 | 12% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:20 PM | -18.6 | 49.2 | 11% |