2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Kenan Stadium
Notre Dame @ North Carolina
Predicted scoreConfident
Notre Dame
35.8
North Carolina
17.5
North Carolina win probability: 12%
Margin (North Carolina − Notre Dame): -18.3 (80% range -39 to 2)
Total: 53.3 (80% range 31 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 14 | 0.83% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.79% |
| 38 | 14 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.70% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:08 PM | -18.3 | 53.2 | 12% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:10 PM | -18.3 | 53.2 | 12% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:25 PM | -18.3 | 53.3 | 12% |