2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Carter-Finley Stadium
Louisville @ NC State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Louisville
27.5
NC State
25.0
NC State win probability: 44%
Margin (NC State − Louisville): -2.5 (80% range -22 to 17)
Total: 52.5 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:07 PM | -2.5 | 52.4 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:11 PM | -2.5 | 52.5 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:26 PM | -2.5 | 52.5 | 44% |