2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Carter-Finley Stadium
Louisville @ NC State
Predicted scoreLean
Louisville
30.9
NC State
24.4
NC State win probability: 34%
Margin (NC State − Louisville): -6.6 (80% range -27 to 14)
Total: 55.3 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Louisville 28 – NC State 31 (margin error 9.6, total error 3.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:07 PM | -2.5 | 52.4 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:11 PM | -2.5 | 52.5 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:26 PM | -2.5 | 52.5 | 44% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:44 AM | -2.5 | 52.5 | 44% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:04 PM | -2.5 | 52.5 | 44% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:54 PM | -2.5 | 52.1 | 43% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:28 PM | -8.1 | 53.4 | 30% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:10 PM | -7.7 | 54.1 | 31% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:44 PM | -7.7 | 54.1 | 31% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:10 AM | -7.4 | 54.0 | 32% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:51 PM | -7.4 | 54.0 | 32% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:27 PM | -6.6 | 55.3 | 34% |