2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Center Parc Stadium
Old Dominion @ Georgia State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Old Dominion
26.5
Georgia State
24.7
Georgia State win probability: 46%
Margin (Georgia State − Old Dominion): -1.7 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 51.2 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Old Dominion 10 – Georgia State 42 (margin error 33.7, total error 0.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:02 PM | -12.7 | 52.0 | 21% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:06 PM | -12.7 | 52.0 | 21% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:45 PM | -12.7 | 52.0 | 21% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:49 AM | -12.7 | 52.0 | 21% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:13 PM | -12.8 | 52.0 | 21% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:30 PM | -12.3 | 51.7 | 22% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:48 PM | -12.0 | 51.1 | 22% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:11 PM | -5.6 | 52.7 | 36% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:41 PM | -5.6 | 52.7 | 36% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:11 AM | -5.3 | 52.6 | 37% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:50 PM | -5.3 | 52.6 | 37% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:31 PM | -1.7 | 51.2 | 46% |