2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
San José State @ Hawai'i
Predicted scoreLean
San José State
22.7
Hawai'i
26.8
Hawai'i win probability: 60%
Margin (Hawai'i − San José State): 4.0 (80% range -16 to 24)
Total: 49.5 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: San José State 20 – Hawai'i 16 (margin error 8.0, total error 13.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.84% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:03 PM | 9.0 | 51.7 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:17 PM | 9.0 | 51.7 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:56 PM | 9.0 | 51.6 | 71% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:10 AM | 9.0 | 51.6 | 71% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:10 PM | 9.0 | 51.6 | 71% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:06 PM | 9.1 | 51.5 | 72% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:04 PM | 3.8 | 48.4 | 60% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:52 PM | 1.6 | 49.2 | 54% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:53 PM | 1.6 | 49.2 | 54% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:07 AM | 1.4 | 49.2 | 54% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:47 PM | 1.4 | 49.2 | 54% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:44 PM | 4.0 | 49.5 | 60% |