2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Doak Campbell Stadium
Virginia @ Florida State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Virginia
24.8
Florida State
27.5
Florida State win probability: 57%
Margin (Florida State − Virginia): 2.7 (80% range -17 to 23)
Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:02 PM | 2.8 | 52.3 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:08 PM | 2.8 | 52.3 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:23 PM | 2.7 | 52.4 | 57% |