2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Doak Campbell Stadium
Virginia @ Florida State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Virginia
27.0
Florida State
27.4
Florida State win probability: 51%
Margin (Florida State − Virginia): 0.4 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Virginia 7 – Florida State 38 (margin error 30.6, total error 9.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:02 PM | 2.8 | 52.3 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:08 PM | 2.8 | 52.3 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:23 PM | 2.7 | 52.4 | 57% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:59 AM | 2.7 | 52.3 | 57% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:57 PM | 2.8 | 52.3 | 57% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:57 PM | 3.0 | 52.8 | 57% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:52 PM | -2.0 | 52.6 | 45% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:58 PM | -1.7 | 52.8 | 46% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:49 PM | -2.3 | 53.0 | 44% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:52 AM | -2.2 | 52.8 | 44% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:49 PM | -2.1 | 52.8 | 44% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:30 PM | 0.4 | 54.4 | 51% |