2026 Week 5 · Oct 2, 2026, 12:00 AM · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Western Kentucky
28.0
New Mexico State
26.9
New Mexico State win probability: 47%
Margin (New Mexico State − Western Kentucky): -1.1 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Western Kentucky 13 – New Mexico State 34 (margin error 22.1, total error 8.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.62% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:07 PM | -3.4 | 52.0 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:04 PM | -3.4 | 52.0 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:16 PM | -3.3 | 51.9 | 42% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:31 AM | -3.3 | 52.0 | 42% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:14 PM | -3.3 | 51.9 | 42% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:08 PM | -3.5 | 52.4 | 41% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:25 PM | 1.6 | 54.3 | 54% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:59 PM | 2.6 | 54.8 | 56% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:27 PM | 2.3 | 55.2 | 56% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:08 AM | 2.4 | 55.2 | 56% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:34 PM | 2.4 | 55.1 | 56% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:14 PM | -1.1 | 55.0 | 47% |