2026 Week 5 · Oct 2, 2026, 12:00 AM · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Western Kentucky
27.6
New Mexico State
24.3
New Mexico State win probability: 42%
Margin (New Mexico State − Western Kentucky): -3.3 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 51.9 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:07 PM | -3.4 | 52.0 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:04 PM | -3.4 | 52.0 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:16 PM | -3.3 | 51.9 | 42% |