Predicted scoreLikely
Alabama
32.9
Wisconsin
17.1
Wisconsin win probability: 15%
Margin (Wisconsin − Alabama): -15.8 (80% range -35 to 4)
Total: 50.1 (80% range 28 to 73)
Actual: Alabama 42 – Wisconsin 10 (margin error 16.2, total error 1.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.86% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 7 | 0.76% |
| 28 | 10 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 7 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.