2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 7:30 PM · Aggie Memorial Stadium
New Mexico @ New Mexico State
Predicted scoreLikely
New Mexico
31.6
New Mexico State
21.8
New Mexico State win probability: 27%
Margin (New Mexico State − New Mexico): -9.8 (80% range -30 to 10)
Total: 53.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:53 PM | -9.5 | 53.2 | 28% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:01 PM | -9.6 | 53.3 | 27% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:09 PM | -9.8 | 53.4 | 27% |