2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 7:30 PM · Aggie Memorial Stadium
New Mexico @ New Mexico State
Predicted scoreLikely
New Mexico
33.3
New Mexico State
20.8
New Mexico State win probability: 22%
Margin (New Mexico State − New Mexico): -12.5 (80% range -32 to 7)
Total: 54.2 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: New Mexico 42 – New Mexico State 18 (margin error 11.5, total error 5.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 14 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:53 PM | -9.5 | 53.2 | 28% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:01 PM | -9.6 | 53.3 | 27% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:09 PM | -9.8 | 53.4 | 27% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:03 AM | -9.6 | 53.3 | 27% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:49 PM | -9.8 | 53.4 | 27% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:19 PM | -9.6 | 53.0 | 27% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:16 PM | -13.3 | 53.3 | 20% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:50 PM | -12.5 | 53.9 | 22% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:10 PM | -12.5 | 54.2 | 22% |