Predicted scoreToss-up
Oregon
28.8
USC
26.0
USC win probability: 43%
Margin (USC − Oregon): -2.8 (80% range -23 to 17)
Total: 54.8 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:56 PM | -2.8 | 54.5 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:59 PM | -2.9 | 54.6 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:03 PM | -2.8 | 54.8 | 43% |