Predicted scoreToss-up
Oregon
27.4
USC
30.1
USC win probability: 57%
Margin (USC − Oregon): 2.7 (80% range -18 to 24)
Total: 57.4 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Oregon 41 – USC 27 (margin error 16.7, total error 10.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.57% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.54% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:56 PM | -2.8 | 54.5 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:59 PM | -2.9 | 54.6 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:03 PM | -2.8 | 54.8 | 43% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:50 AM | -2.7 | 54.6 | 43% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:45 PM | -2.8 | 54.6 | 43% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:58 PM | -2.4 | 54.5 | 44% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:07 PM | -0.7 | 56.4 | 48% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:37 PM | 2.1 | 57.0 | 55% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:37:57 PM | 2.7 | 57.4 | 57% |