2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Missouri State @ SMU
Predicted scoreConfident
Missouri State
16.3
SMU
37.7
SMU win probability: 91%
Margin (SMU − Missouri State): 21.3 (80% range 1 to 42)
Total: 54.0 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:54 PM | 21.4 | 53.8 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:50 PM | 21.4 | 53.8 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:51 PM | 21.3 | 54.0 | 91% |