2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Missouri State @ SMU
Predicted scoreConfident
Missouri State
13.4
SMU
38.1
SMU win probability: 95%
Margin (SMU − Missouri State): 24.7 (80% range 5 to 45)
Total: 51.5 (80% range 30 to 75)
Actual: Missouri State 24 – SMU 34 (margin error 14.7, total error 6.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.92% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.88% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.88% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:54 PM | 21.4 | 53.8 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:50 PM | 21.4 | 53.8 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:51 PM | 21.3 | 54.0 | 91% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:57 AM | 21.5 | 53.8 | 92% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:40 PM | 21.7 | 53.6 | 92% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:08 PM | 21.4 | 53.4 | 91% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:56 PM | 24.9 | 51.1 | 95% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:35 PM | 24.6 | 51.9 | 94% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:22 PM | 24.7 | 51.5 | 95% |