Predicted scoreToss-up
TCU
27.8
UCF
24.4
UCF win probability: 41%
Margin (UCF − TCU): -3.5 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 52.2 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: TCU 13 – UCF 21 (margin error 11.5, total error 18.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 14 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:56 PM | -5.9 | 55.2 | 35% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:57 PM | -5.8 | 55.3 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:52 PM | -5.8 | 55.1 | 36% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:55 AM | -5.9 | 55.1 | 36% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:39 PM | -5.9 | 55.0 | 36% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:12 PM | -6.2 | 54.6 | 35% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:53 PM | -4.4 | 53.7 | 39% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:33 PM | -3.5 | 52.3 | 41% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:08 PM | -3.5 | 52.2 | 41% |