Predicted scoreLean
TCU
30.4
UCF
24.6
UCF win probability: 36%
Margin (UCF − TCU): -5.8 (80% range -27 to 14)
Total: 55.1 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:56 PM | -5.9 | 55.2 | 35% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:57 PM | -5.8 | 55.3 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:52 PM | -5.8 | 55.1 | 36% |