2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Center Parc Stadium
Northern Illinois @ Georgia State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Northern Illinois
27.6
Georgia State
25.9
Georgia State win probability: 46%
Margin (Georgia State − Northern Illinois): -1.7 (80% range -22 to 18)
Total: 53.6 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:49 PM | -1.6 | 53.7 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:58 PM | -1.7 | 53.5 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:58 PM | -1.7 | 53.6 | 46% |