2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Center Parc Stadium
Northern Illinois @ Georgia State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Northern Illinois
24.8
Georgia State
28.0
Georgia State win probability: 58%
Margin (Georgia State − Northern Illinois): 3.2 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 52.9 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Northern Illinois 14 – Georgia State 35 (margin error 17.8, total error 3.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:49 PM | -1.6 | 53.7 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:58 PM | -1.7 | 53.5 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:58 PM | -1.7 | 53.6 | 46% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:20 AM | -1.7 | 53.7 | 46% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:41 PM | -1.7 | 53.6 | 46% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:10 PM | -1.9 | 53.4 | 45% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:13 PM | 0.1 | 53.0 | 50% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:28 PM | 3.1 | 52.8 | 57% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:12 PM | 3.2 | 52.9 | 58% |