2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:00 PM · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Georgia State @ UCF
Predicted scoreLikely
Georgia State
18.8
UCF
34.3
UCF win probability: 84%
Margin (UCF − Georgia State): 15.5 (80% range -4 to 36)
Total: 53.0 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Georgia State 30 – UCF 44 (margin error 1.5, total error 21.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:42 PM | 17.3 | 55.3 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:43 PM | 17.3 | 55.6 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:20 PM | 17.3 | 55.5 | 86% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:13 AM | 17.3 | 55.6 | 86% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:18 PM | 17.4 | 55.6 | 86% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:23 PM | 15.9 | 55.6 | 84% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:32 PM | 17.5 | 55.0 | 86% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:18 PM | 15.5 | 53.0 | 84% |