2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:00 PM · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Georgia State @ UCF
Predicted scoreConfident
Georgia State
19.1
UCF
36.4
UCF win probability: 86%
Margin (UCF − Georgia State): 17.3 (80% range -3 to 38)
Total: 55.5 (80% range 32 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 35 | 0.73% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:42 PM | 17.3 | 55.3 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:43 PM | 17.3 | 55.6 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:20 PM | 17.3 | 55.5 | 86% |