2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 10:30 PM · Plaster Sports Complex
Marshall @ Missouri State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Marshall
26.3
Missouri State
27.0
Missouri State win probability: 52%
Margin (Missouri State − Marshall): 0.7 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 53.3 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:44 PM | 1.8 | 53.4 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:43 PM | 0.5 | 53.3 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:18 PM | 0.7 | 53.3 | 52% |