2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 10:30 PM · Plaster Sports Complex
Marshall @ Missouri State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Marshall
25.8
Missouri State
26.0
Missouri State win probability: 50%
Margin (Missouri State − Marshall): 0.2 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 51.7 (80% range 28 to 76)
Actual: Marshall 30 – Missouri State 24 (margin error 6.2, total error 2.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:44 PM | 1.8 | 53.4 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:43 PM | 0.5 | 53.3 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:18 PM | 0.7 | 53.3 | 52% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:11 AM | 0.5 | 53.3 | 51% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:11 PM | 1.7 | 53.4 | 54% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:25 PM | 0.2 | 53.2 | 50% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:30 PM | -0.4 | 51.2 | 49% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:15 PM | 0.2 | 51.7 | 50% |