2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 10:00 PM · S.B. Ballard Stadium
East Carolina @ Old Dominion
Predicted scoreToss-up
East Carolina
24.6
Old Dominion
26.1
Old Dominion win probability: 54%
Margin (Old Dominion − East Carolina): 1.5 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 50.8 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: East Carolina 20 – Old Dominion 17 (margin error 4.5, total error 13.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:37 PM | 1.5 | 50.8 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:43 PM | 1.5 | 51.0 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:17 PM | 1.7 | 51.0 | 54% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:10 AM | 1.5 | 51.0 | 54% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:10 PM | 1.5 | 51.0 | 54% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:05 PM | 0.2 | 50.1 | 50% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:28 PM | 1.5 | 51.1 | 54% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:14 PM | 1.5 | 50.8 | 54% |