2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 10:00 PM · FAU Stadium
Florida International @ Florida Atlantic
Predicted scoreToss-up
Florida International
27.0
Florida Atlantic
28.0
Florida Atlantic win probability: 52%
Margin (Florida Atlantic − Florida International): 1.0 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 55.1 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Florida International 10 – Florida Atlantic 16 (margin error 5.0, total error 29.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:33 PM | 4.1 | 51.6 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:42 PM | 4.0 | 51.5 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:16 PM | 4.1 | 51.6 | 60% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:10 AM | 4.0 | 51.6 | 60% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:10 PM | 4.0 | 51.5 | 60% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:26 PM | 3.9 | 51.4 | 59% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:29 PM | -0.3 | 54.8 | 49% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:15 PM | 1.0 | 55.1 | 52% |