Predicted scoreLikely
Stanford
20.4
Duke
32.6
Duke win probability: 78%
Margin (Duke − Stanford): 12.2 (80% range -7 to 32)
Total: 53.0 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Stanford 7 – Duke 35 (margin error 15.8, total error 11.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.65% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:33 PM | 11.2 | 54.3 | 76% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:42 PM | 11.2 | 54.2 | 76% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:12 PM | 11.2 | 54.4 | 76% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:48 AM | 11.1 | 54.4 | 75% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:30 PM | 11.6 | 54.3 | 76% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:03 PM | 10.8 | 53.7 | 75% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:25 PM | 11.5 | 52.7 | 76% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:12 PM | 12.2 | 53.0 | 78% |