2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 7:30 PM · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Florida State @ Alabama
Predicted scoreConfident
Florida State
16.4
Alabama
35.0
Alabama win probability: 89%
Margin (Alabama − Florida State): 18.6 (80% range -1 to 39)
Total: 51.5 (80% range 30 to 75)
Actual: Florida State 36 – Alabama 50 (margin error 4.6, total error 34.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 38 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.76% |
| 10 | 28 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:30 PM | 12.2 | 52.2 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:39 PM | 12.3 | 52.4 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:09 PM | 12.4 | 52.3 | 79% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:45 AM | 12.4 | 52.3 | 79% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:28 PM | 12.5 | 52.2 | 79% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:41 PM | 13.3 | 52.9 | 80% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:24 PM | 18.9 | 52.0 | 89% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:08 PM | 18.6 | 51.5 | 89% |