2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 7:30 PM · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Florida State @ Alabama
Predicted scoreLikely
Florida State
20.0
Alabama
32.4
Alabama win probability: 79%
Margin (Alabama − Florida State): 12.4 (80% range -7 to 32)
Total: 52.3 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.75% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:30 PM | 12.2 | 52.2 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:39 PM | 12.3 | 52.4 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:09 PM | 12.4 | 52.3 | 79% |