2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 7:30 PM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
SMU @ Louisville
Predicted scoreToss-up
SMU
26.0
Louisville
29.1
Louisville win probability: 58%
Margin (Louisville − SMU): 3.1 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 55.1 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: SMU 31 – Louisville 41 (margin error 6.9, total error 16.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.57% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:35 PM | 2.1 | 53.6 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:40 PM | 2.2 | 53.6 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:11 PM | 2.2 | 53.7 | 55% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:43 AM | 2.2 | 53.7 | 55% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:27 PM | 2.2 | 53.7 | 55% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:42 PM | 0.8 | 53.8 | 52% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:21 PM | 2.8 | 54.9 | 57% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:10 PM | 3.1 | 55.1 | 58% |