2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 7:30 PM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
SMU @ Louisville
Predicted scoreToss-up
SMU
25.8
Louisville
27.9
Louisville win probability: 55%
Margin (Louisville − SMU): 2.2 (80% range -18 to 23)
Total: 53.7 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:35 PM | 2.1 | 53.6 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:40 PM | 2.2 | 53.6 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:11 PM | 2.2 | 53.7 | 55% |