2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 11:30 PM · Kinnick Stadium
Iowa State @ Iowa
Predicted scoreLikely
Iowa State
19.2
Iowa
28.6
Iowa win probability: 73%
Margin (Iowa − Iowa State): 9.4 (80% range -10 to 29)
Total: 47.8 (80% range 27 to 71)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.84% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.66% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:21 PM | 9.5 | 47.5 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:33 PM | 9.2 | 47.8 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:45 PM | 9.4 | 47.8 | 73% |