2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 11:00 PM · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Tulsa @ Sam Houston
Predicted scoreLean
Tulsa
28.9
Sam Houston
24.4
Sam Houston win probability: 39%
Margin (Sam Houston − Tulsa): -4.5 (80% range -25 to 16)
Total: 53.3 (80% range 31 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.67% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:26 PM | -4.6 | 53.2 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:30 PM | -4.5 | 53.1 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:44 PM | -4.5 | 53.3 | 39% |