2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 11:00 PM · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Tulsa @ Sam Houston
Predicted scoreToss-up
Tulsa
28.6
Sam Houston
25.6
Sam Houston win probability: 43%
Margin (Sam Houston − Tulsa): -3.0 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Tulsa 23 – Sam Houston 17 (margin error 3.0, total error 14.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.58% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:26 PM | -4.6 | 53.2 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:30 PM | -4.5 | 53.1 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:44 PM | -4.5 | 53.3 | 39% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:43:58 AM | -4.5 | 53.6 | 39% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:01:52 PM | -4.6 | 53.3 | 39% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:57:24 PM | -6.0 | 53.9 | 36% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:51:39 PM | -3.0 | 54.3 | 43% |