Predicted scoreLikely
Alabama
28.9
Kentucky
19.5
Kentucky win probability: 27%
Margin (Kentucky − Alabama): -9.3 (80% range -28 to 10)
Total: 48.4 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.93% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.84% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:22 PM | -9.2 | 48.3 | 28% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:28 PM | -9.1 | 48.4 | 28% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:30 PM | -9.3 | 48.4 | 27% |