2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 4:00 AM · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
New Mexico State @ Hawai'i
Predicted scoreLikely
New Mexico State
21.6
Hawai'i
30.7
Hawai'i win probability: 72%
Margin (Hawai'i − New Mexico State): 9.1 (80% range -11 to 29)
Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: New Mexico State 19 – Hawai'i 29 (margin error 0.9, total error 4.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.84% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:21 PM | 12.8 | 53.1 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:34 PM | 12.1 | 53.1 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:54 PM | 12.5 | 53.0 | 79% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:43:50 AM | 12.5 | 53.0 | 79% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:01:57 PM | 12.4 | 52.3 | 78% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:57:37 PM | 12.3 | 52.1 | 78% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:51:49 PM | 9.1 | 52.4 | 72% |