2026 Week 1 · Sep 7, 2026, 11:30 PM · Doak Campbell Stadium
SMU @ Florida State
Predicted scoreToss-up
SMU
27.5
Florida State
26.9
Florida State win probability: 48%
Margin (Florida State − SMU): -0.6 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.58% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:08 PM | -0.3 | 54.4 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:22 PM | -0.6 | 54.5 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:19 PM | -0.6 | 54.4 | 48% |