2026 Week 1 · Sep 6, 2026, 2:00 AM · University Stadium (NM)
Central Michigan @ New Mexico
Predicted scoreLikely
Central Michigan
21.0
New Mexico
33.6
New Mexico win probability: 79%
Margin (New Mexico − Central Michigan): 12.6 (80% range -7 to 33)
Total: 54.6 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 28 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 38 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:12 PM | 12.7 | 54.5 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:20 PM | 12.6 | 54.6 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:14 PM | 12.6 | 54.6 | 79% |