2026 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026, 7:30 PM · Autzen Stadium
Boise State @ Oregon
Predicted scoreConfident
Boise State
15.6
Oregon
35.2
Oregon win probability: 90%
Margin (Oregon − Boise State): 19.6 (80% range 0 to 39)
Total: 50.7 (80% range 28 to 74)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.82% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.78% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 10 | 28 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:13 PM | 19.6 | 50.7 | 90% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:17 PM | 19.5 | 50.8 | 90% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:01 PM | 19.6 | 50.7 | 90% |