2026 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026, 4:00 PM · Bryant-Denny Stadium
East Carolina @ Alabama
Predicted scoreConfident
East Carolina
15.7
Alabama
37.0
Alabama win probability: 91%
Margin (Alabama − East Carolina): 21.3 (80% range 1 to 42)
Total: 52.7 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 38 | 0.88% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.79% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:05 PM | 21.3 | 52.5 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:14 PM | 21.3 | 52.5 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:25:55 PM | 21.3 | 52.7 | 91% |