2026 Week 1 · Aug 29, 2026, 11:00 PM · Doak Campbell Stadium

New Mexico State @ Florida State

Predicted scoreConfident

New Mexico State

15.0

Florida State

39.2

Florida State win probability: 94%

Margin (Florida State − New Mexico State): 24.2 (80% range 4 to 45)

Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: New Mexico State 17 – Florida State 34 (margin error 7.2, total error 3.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.