2026 Week 1 · Aug 29, 2026, 7:00 PM · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

San José State @ USC

Predicted scoreConfident

San José State

13.2

USC

39.9

USC win probability: 95%

Margin (USC − San José State): 26.7 (80% range 7 to 48)

Total: 53.1 (80% range 31 to 76)

Actual: San José State 26 – USC 42 (margin error 10.7, total error 14.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.