2026 Week 1 · Aug 29, 2026, 4:00 PM · Aviva Stadium (neutral site)

North Carolina @ TCU

Predicted scoreLikely

North Carolina

20.2

TCU

34.3

TCU win probability: 82%

Margin (TCU − North Carolina): 14.1 (80% range -6 to 35)

Total: 54.5 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: North Carolina 15 – TCU 10 (margin error 19.1, total error 29.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.