2025 Postseason · Dec 31, 2025, 2:00 AM · Alamodome (neutral site)

USC @ TCU

Predicted scoreToss-up

USC

29.5

TCU

27.6

TCU win probability: 45%

Margin (TCU − USC): -1.9 (80% range -22 to 18)

Total: 57.0 (80% range 34 to 82)

Actual: USC 27 – TCU 30 (margin error 4.9, total error 0.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.