2025 Postseason · Dec 27, 2025, 1:00 AM · Gerald J. Ford Stadium (neutral site)

Florida International @ UTSA

Predicted scoreLean

Florida International

21.3

UTSA

28.3

UTSA win probability: 67%

Margin (UTSA − Florida International): 7.0 (80% range -13 to 27)

Total: 49.6 (80% range 27 to 73)

Actual: Florida International 20 – UTSA 57 (margin error 30.0, total error 27.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.