2025 Postseason · Dec 26, 2025, 9:30 PM · Chase Field (neutral site)

New Mexico @ Minnesota

Predicted scoreConfident

New Mexico

20.0

Minnesota

38.1

Minnesota win probability: 87%

Margin (Minnesota − New Mexico): 18.2 (80% range -3 to 39)

Total: 58.1 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: New Mexico 17 – Minnesota 20 (margin error 15.2, total error 21.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.