2025 Week 15 · Dec 7, 2025, 1:00 AM · Bank of America Stadium (neutral site)

Duke @ Virginia

Predicted scoreToss-up

Duke

28.9

Virginia

27.8

Virginia win probability: 47%

Margin (Virginia − Duke): -1.1 (80% range -21 to 20)

Total: 56.7 (80% range 34 to 82)

Actual: Duke 27 – Virginia 20 (margin error 5.9, total error 9.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.