2025 Week 15 · Dec 6, 2025, 1:00 AM · Albertsons Stadium
UNLV @ Boise State
Predicted scoreToss-up
UNLV
26.2
Boise State
29.5
Boise State win probability: 58%
Margin (Boise State − UNLV): 3.3 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 55.6 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: UNLV 21 – Boise State 38 (margin error 13.7, total error 3.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.