2025 Week 14 · Nov 30, 2025, 12:30 AM · Carter-Finley Stadium

North Carolina @ NC State

Predicted scoreLean

North Carolina

23.2

NC State

29.5

NC State win probability: 65%

Margin (NC State − North Carolina): 6.2 (80% range -14 to 27)

Total: 52.7 (80% range 30 to 77)

Actual: North Carolina 19 – NC State 42 (margin error 16.8, total error 8.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.