Predicted scoreToss-up
UAB
27.3
Tulsa
28.2
Tulsa win probability: 52%
Margin (Tulsa − UAB): 1.0 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 55.5 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: UAB 31 – Tulsa 24 (margin error 8.0, total error 0.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.