2025 Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025, 5:00 PM · FAU Stadium
East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic
Predicted scoreLean
East Carolina
29.5
Florida Atlantic
25.2
Florida Atlantic win probability: 39%
Margin (Florida Atlantic − East Carolina): -4.3 (80% range -25 to 17)
Total: 54.7 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: East Carolina 42 – Florida Atlantic 3 (margin error 34.7, total error 9.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.