2025 Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025, 5:00 PM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

Kentucky @ Louisville

Predicted scoreToss-up

Kentucky

22.5

Louisville

24.0

Louisville win probability: 54%

Margin (Louisville − Kentucky): 1.5 (80% range -18 to 21)

Total: 46.5 (80% range 24 to 69)

Actual: Kentucky 0 – Louisville 41 (margin error 39.5, total error 5.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.