2025 Week 14 · Nov 28, 2025, 8:30 PM · University Stadium (NM)

San Diego State @ New Mexico

Predicted scoreToss-up

San Diego State

23.3

New Mexico

26.0

New Mexico win probability: 57%

Margin (New Mexico − San Diego State): 2.7 (80% range -17 to 22)

Total: 49.3 (80% range 27 to 73)

Actual: San Diego State 17 – New Mexico 23 (margin error 3.3, total error 9.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.